On Thursday, April 22nd at 6:11 AM, SpaceX is scheduled to launch the Crew-2 mission from Kennedy Space Center. The mission will utilize a Falcon 9 rocket to send the Crew Dragon Endeavour spacecraft with four astronauts onboard to the International Space Station.
Update: NASA has delayed the launch until Friday, April 23rd at 5:49 AM. This is outside of the twilight phenomenon window.
Where to look
Anybody in Harris County with an unobstructed view of the eastern horizon will be able to see this event starting around 6:13 AM. As I note in my Rocket Launch Viewing Guide, the best locations in Harris County for viewing a launch are in FDR State Park. This launch will climb a little higher than the Starlink missions that are referenced in the guide.
click image to enlarge
What will be visible
With sunrise occurring at 7:01 AM this launch will produce a twilight phenomenon similar to the photo and video below. An illuminated exhaust plume from the second stage will be the most visible element. The plume will grow brighter as the second stage continues to the northeast and climbs higher into sunlight.
The view from the FDR State Park office as a Falcon 9 second stage produced a twilight phenomenon on 13 June 2020
What may be visible
On 22 December 2017 a Falcon 9 launch from Vandenberg AFB in California produced a twilight phenomenon that was visible throughout the southwestern United States. The Falcon 9 launch on Thursday will have nearly identical conditions to that launch. Specifically the sun will be 10° below the horizon which is an optimal location for producing a twilight phenomenon.
During that 2017 launch the cold gas thruster firings from the booster were clearly visible 500 miles to the east in Arizona. It is highly probable thruster firings will be visible for the launch on Thursday. This will begin approximately 165 seconds after liftoff when the booster is 6° above the horizon.
Bonus view
Crew Dragon Endeavour is not the only spacecraft with astronauts onboard that will be visible Thursday morning. Fifteen minutes prior to liftoff the International Space Station with seven astronauts and cosmonauts onboard will pass to the south of Florida. It will take Endeavour just under 24 hours to catch up and dock with the ISS.
The ISS will become visible in the south around 5:53 AM when it moves out of Earth’s shadow and into sunlight. Between 5:56 AM and 5:57 AM it will pass just south of Jupiter. It will set in the northeast around 6:01 AM.
Weather
Locally the forecast looks great with clear skies and a temperature near 40°. Down at Kennedy Space Center some breezy conditions which will need to be monitored. The booster recovery zone and abort splashdown zones in the Atlantic will also need to be monitored for high swells. On Tuesday the 45th Weather Squadron at Patrick Space Force Base will begin issuing forecasts for the launch which include the probability of weather violations.
Scrub
Should a scrub occur on Thursday the next launch opportunities will be Friday around 5:45 AM, Saturday around 5:20 AM, and Sunday around 4:50 AM. These times will be outside of the twilight phenomenon window.